Earliest record: 2026-06-20 05:00 PM PDT. Should stay pinned for the whole run. If it jumps forward, the /data volume reset and history was lost.
| day | trades | win% | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Aug 05 | 29 | 31% | $-7 |
| Tue Aug 04 | 16 | 38% | +$1 |
| Mon Aug 03 | 18 | 33% | $-58 |
| Sun Aug 02 | 34 | 41% | +$30 |
| Sat Aug 01 | 31 | 32% | +$27 |
| Fri Jul 31 | 46 | 39% | $-1 |
| Thu Jul 30 | 6 | 17% | $-1 |
| Wed Jul 29 | 81 | 32% | $-61 |
| Tue Jul 28 | 75 | 48% | +$75 |
| Mon Jul 27 | 42 | 38% | $-70 |
| Sun Jul 26 | 53 | 40% | +$67 |
| Sat Jul 25 | 27 | 33% | +$53 |
Rejected avg $-60/mkt vs accepted $-3/mkt.
| gate blocked | mkts | win% | $/mkt | total $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| gate_3_probability_band | 4766 | 17% | $-66 | $-314,740 |
| gate_0_daily_limits | 2877 | 22% | $-55 | $-158,614 |
| gate_2_strike_selection | 435 | 60% | $-41 | $-17,885 |
| gate_6_model_agreement | 39 | 72% | $+100 | $+3,919 |
| gate_9c_per_market_notional | 12 | 67% | $+78 | $+940 |
| gate_4_edge_threshold | 3 | 33% | $+104 | $+311 |
$/mkt = equal-weight $100 stake per market at its ask, net of Kalshi fee. This is the edge test — win% alone hides whether rejected winners are fairly-priced favorites (no edge).
| time (PST) | strike | side | qty | buy | result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05 12:05PM | 64899.99 | yes | 8 | 38¢ | open | – |
| 08/05 11:39AM | 64699.99 | yes | 10 | 30¢ | WON | +$3 |
| 08/05 11:31AM | 64699.99 | yes | 3 | 42¢ | lost | $-1 |
| 08/05 11:31AM | 64699.99 | yes | 3 | 42¢ | lost | $-1 |
| 08/05 08:33AM | 64499.99 | yes | 11 | 42¢ | WON | +$2 |
| 08/05 08:29AM | 64599.99 | yes | 8 | 33¢ | lost | $-1 |
| 08/05 08:16AM | 64699.99 | yes | 8 | 34¢ | lost | $-1 |
| 08/05 07:30AM | 64499.99 | yes | 6 | 28¢ | lost | $-1 |
| 08/05 07:30AM | 64499.99 | yes | 8 | 29¢ | lost | $-1 |
| 08/05 07:22AM | 64599.99 | yes | 2 | 29¢ | lost | $-0 |
| 08/05 07:22AM | 64599.99 | yes | 2 | 29¢ | lost | $-0 |
| 08/05 07:22AM | 64599.99 | yes | 3 | 29¢ | lost | $-0 |
| 08/05 07:08AM | 64399.99 | yes | 5 | 34¢ | WON | +$1 |
| 08/05 07:08AM | 64399.99 | yes | 2 | 40¢ | WON | +$0 |
| 08/05 07:08AM | 64399.99 | yes | 2 | 40¢ | WON | +$0 |
| 08/05 05:49AM | 64399.99 | yes | 10 | 42¢ | lost | $-2 |
| 08/05 05:45AM | 64499.99 | yes | 3 | 27¢ | lost | $-1 |
| 08/05 05:45AM | 64499.99 | yes | 3 | 29¢ | lost | $-1 |
| 08/05 05:45AM | 64499.99 | yes | 4 | 29¢ | lost | $-1 |
| 08/05 05:19AM | 64199.99 | yes | 2 | 43¢ | WON | +$1 |
| 08/05 04:27AM | 64099.99 | yes | 5 | 35¢ | lost | $-1 |
| 08/05 04:22AM | 64099.99 | yes | 3 | 38¢ | lost | $-1 |
| 08/05 04:16AM | 64099.99 | yes | 4 | 40¢ | lost | $-1 |
| 08/05 03:42AM | 64199.99 | yes | 7 | 32¢ | lost | $-1 |
| 08/05 03:30AM | 64199.99 | yes | 7 | 30¢ | lost | $-1 |
| 08/05 03:30AM | 64199.99 | yes | 7 | 34¢ | lost | $-1 |
| 08/05 02:22AM | 64099.99 | yes | 4 | 47¢ | WON | +$1 |
| 08/05 02:22AM | 64099.99 | yes | 6 | 46¢ | WON | +$1 |
| 08/05 01:28AM | 64199.99 | yes | 3 | 45¢ | WON | +$0 |
| 08/05 12:17AM | 64199.99 | yes | 8 | 43¢ | lost | $-1 |
Buy = actual entry fill price. Result = outcome at close (WON if net P&L > 0); positions may be closed early by exit rules (model-flip, hard-time, session-salvage), not only at resolution.
| window | now κ | rec κ | status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-10min | 2.0 | 1.9 | adopt |
| 10-20min | 2.0 | 1.9 | adopt |
| 20-30min | 2.0 | 1.9 | adopt |
| 30-45min | 2.0 | 1.9 | adopt |
| 45-60min | 2.0 | 1.9 | adopt |
Last formal run: 2026-07-05T20:09
Live fills are REAL (subject to slippage and partial fills) — not the paper sim's optimistic full-fill-at-ask. Gate counterfactual and optimizer use one row per market (deduped) from candidates.db, labelled by resolve_due. Win% on closed trades is P&L-based (net > 0) since positions may close early. Calibration quality does not imply profit: a well-calibrated model on a near-efficient market trades rarely and roughly breaks even.